THE TIME ADVANTAGED INVESTOR
DAY 1
Really doing this. Tried to start with a clean $1m, but the account has some legacy positions that shifted around so the starting balance is $1,010,122. By February it should be entirely focused on the time-advantaged strategy.
Updates will be irregular but I will aim for at least monthly and hopefully more frequently than that.
Spotlight position:
Short Cocoa ($CC) ‘26-‘27 futures and calls [legacy position]
Why the position is time advantaged:
Cocoa is driven by supply/demand cycles for each crop year. The market was in a severe supply deficit for a few years but has since inflected. Next crop year will be a surplus and it may get worse from there. Demand has also curtailed as confectionary makers have cut cocoa content and (to a lesser extent) bar size.
Calls were ATM when written, and now OTM. Premium will erode as they get closer to expiry
Disclaimer: This is not financial or trading advice. I don’t even know if it will work. I certainly don’t recommend you do anything and have no responsibility to you under any circumstances. Don’t expect advance warning of any change in position — you will not get it. I might close or flip positions or take other trades you do not expect without notice. Under no circumstances will I have any liability to you, so be an adult and take responsibility for your own actions. If you disagree, discard this email, unfollow and ignore.